Billions of dollars of Tamiflu had been stockpiled for the H1N1 2009 potential flu pandemic. The problem is that publication bias, like most “evidence based medicine” studies today, affected the Tamiflu test results. An explanation of the data so far disclosed, can be found here.
Ben Goldacre is a concerned doctor who prescribes drugs to treat his patients. He relies on his training and due diligence to research and study the efficacy of his prescriptions to establish confidence in his treatment programs. While uncovering information pertinent to one of his patients, he discovered some interesting information about how test results get published. Ben can be seen on TED discussing his research on the subject.
Ben points out that positive, or favorable test results are twice as likely to be published as unfavorable test results. “Unflattering” test results go unpublished. The bias is so well documented that it puts evidence based medicine at risk.
In the case of Tamiflu, you may ask, how effective is it? Well, as Roche refuses to release the data on its complete testing it is hard to say. An organization in the UK, called BMJ, maintains a website on the Tamiflu data where the following updates are found:
The (their) bottom line:
- WHO recommends Tamiflu, but has not vetted the Tamiflu data.
- EMA approved Tamiflu, but did not review the full Tamiflu dataset.
- CDC and ECDC encourage the use and stockpiling of Tamiflu, but did not vet the Tamiflu data.
- The majority of Roche’s Phase III treatment trials remain unpublished over a decade after completion.
- In Dec 2009, Roche publicly promised independent scientists access to “full study reports” for selected Tamiflu trials, but to date the company has not made even one full report available.
Perhaps it was decided to release a (possible) treatment for a (possible) H1N1 Flu pandemic than to have no prescription to offer at all. Many of the “stockpiles” of Tamiflu (2007-2009) expired on June 23, 2010.
The 2012-2013 Flu season recommendations can be found here, where it lists the schedule and dosages of Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) to treat all age groups.
Eye on the Ball 
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